Latest Analysis
Independent research and market commentary: equities, semiconductors, AI, and macro. These are my views, not investment advice.
Alphabet Lost $500 Billion in a Day. Microsoft Spent Less Than It Promised. The Market Pays for Restraint Now.
Three hyperscalers reported, three capex postures, three reactions. The one that spent less than it promised won, Apple passed Nvidia, and Intel had its worst day since 1974.
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Meta's Free Cash Flow Went Negative and Brent Hit $116.72. The Fed Decides Into Both.
Meta earned a record $64.6 billion and still burned $2.1 billion of cash. Brent settled at $116.72 while the 10-year fell under 5% and gold lost 3.8%. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and the Fed all land this week.
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Chips Lost 11.4% and Bonds Rallied. The AI Trade Is Now a Credit Trade.
The semiconductor index fell 11.4% over eight straight sessions while the 10-year rallied to 5.085% on hot inflation data. CoreWeave's CDS blew through 1,000 basis points. Meta's capex guide on Wednesday is the number that matters.
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A Record High With 46% of the Index Above Its 200-Day. Wednesday's CPI Is the Test.
Records on Tuesday, an OpenAI revenue correction on Thursday, and 46% of the S&P above its 200-day underneath both. Wednesday's core CPI decides whether October 28 stays dead.
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Hiring Stalled at 29,000 and the October Hike Died. The December One Did Not.
September payrolls came in at 29,000 against an 84,000 consensus and October hike odds collapsed to 17%. The S&P 500 still lost ground, Micron printed the best quarter in memory history and got sold, and 28 stocks now account for the entire index year.
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The 30-Year Just Hit a 2004 High and Stocks Rallied Anyway. Now Comes the Week That Tests It.
Yields broke 5.20% on the strongest PMI since 2021 and equities rallied on chips and Meta. A scorecard on last week's calls, and the three prints that decide whether it holds.
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The Fed Hiked, Unanimously, and Pencilled In More. The Market Shrugged. Here Is Why That Is the Bullish Read.
A 12 to 0 hike, dots pointing to one more this year, a 5% 10-year, and a dead crypto bill. The S&P lost 0.1%. Grading last Monday's seven levels, and why Micron's September 30 print is now the most important event of the quarter.
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The Fed Hikes Wednesday. Oil Is Back Above $100. The 10-Year Is a Whisker From 5%.
A 25 basis point hike is now an 86% bet, the 10-year touched 4.99%, and Brent spent the week above $100. Here is what the September 7 playbook got right, what it missed, and what the Fed, retail sales, and the CLARITY Act vote mean for the week.
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Payrolls Just Tripled Expectations. A September Hike Is Live. Here Is the Hike-Proof Playbook.
A strong jobs report, a hawkish Chair, and a Fed meeting in nine days. The question for every position is simple: does it survive a 25 basis point hike? Most of what led in August does not.
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Nvidia Reports Wednesday. I Rated It a Sell at $215 Last October. Here Is the Updated Model.
Same model, new inputs: the stock went sideways for ten months while earnings doubled and Nvidia agreed to backstop $105 billion of OpenAI's data center financing. The valuation argument that made me a seller has inverted.
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Retail Sales Just Fell 0.6%. Walmart Is Priced for Perfection. Target Is Priced for Failure. The Risk Is Obvious.
Tame inflation, a record high, and then a retail sales drop that says the low-end consumer is out of money. The big-box prints this week are a test of a K-shaped economy, and the valuations already tell you where the risk is.
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I Called for $150K Bitcoin in January. It Is $64K. I Still Stand by the Call.
Stocks at records, Bitcoin at $64,000 and down a third for the year, ETF outflows finally exhausted, and the Fed hike odds falling. An honest accounting of what went wrong on the path, why the $150,000 call still stands, and why the liquidity argument finally lines up.
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Microsoft +15%, Apple -9%, Micron -29% in a Month. The Scorecard Is Written. Here Is What It Means.
Microsoft had the largest one-day value gain in history and Apple its worst day in 16 months. Memory lost a third of its value in July. The market has finished sorting winners from losers. The losers it got wrong are the opportunity.
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A Hawkish Hold on Wednesday, and the Biggest Earnings Week of the Year Around It
Fed Wednesday with dissents likely, then Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple. After Alphabet lost 8% on a capex raise, the market has told us what it will punish. Microsoft is the one that avoids it.
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The Kimi Shock Is DeepSeek All Over Again. The Case for Semis Into Alphabet's Capex Guide.
Semis are down 17% in July on a Chinese model and a Chinese memory IPO. Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel report this week. The capex numbers will settle the argument, and the evidence points one way.
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Oil Is Up 9% This Morning. JPMorgan Reports Tomorrow. The Banks Are the Cleanest Trade Left.
The ceasefire is fraying, crude is back above $80, and semis keep sliding. Record trading revenue and higher-for-longer rates make the banks the only trade this week with no AI risk in it.
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The Hike Is Off the Table. The Chip Supply Wave Isn't.
A weak jobs report and $69 oil defuse the Fed. Samsung reports tomorrow, SK Hynix lists on the Nasdaq Friday, and the memory trade has a supply-of-paper problem of its own.
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Micron Reports Wednesday. The Memory Supercycle Is About to Meet a Hostile Tape.
HBM is sold out, NAND is in shortage, and Micron guided $33.5 billion. The setup is the strongest I have seen. The problem is what the market does with good news right now.
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Peace Deal Monday: Sell the Oil Trade, Don't Chase Tech Into Wednesday's Fed
Hormuz reopens, crude drops, futures jump. The energy unwind is real. The rate relief the market is pricing off the back of it is not, and Warsh's first dot plot is two days away.
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Alphabet Is Selling $80 Billion of Stock. The AI Trade Just Changed Character.
When the biggest cash machine in tech raises equity to fund capex, the AI trade stops being a cash-flow story and becomes a supply-of-paper story. Here is what I am doing about it.
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Nine Straight Weeks Up, Oil Above $100, and a New Fed Chair. Something Has to Give.
A nine-week streak, a quarter of $100 oil, and a new Fed chair with no track record. The rate-cut narrative the rally is built on is the weakest link.
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SNDK Earnings Preview: The NAND Supercycle Nobody Is Talking About
Sandisk reports earnings today. The street is focused on the wrong metrics — here's what actually matters and why the setup is more interesting than consensus suggests.
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What the Claude Opus 4.6 Release Means for Your Portfolio
Breaking down the implications of the latest AI model release and what it signals for tech-sector positioning — and why Amazon is the biggest winner.
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The "Boring" Bitcoin Market Is About to Explode: Why I See $150k in 2026
The leverage casino is over. Institutions have taken over. Why the options market structure, the BlackRock buffer, and a gamma magnet at $100k point to a violent breakout.
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Wall Street Says Sell. My Proprietary Model Says +96% Upside. Who Is Wrong?
Novo Nordisk (NVO) analysis predicting a 96% rally potential in Q1 — a deep dive into why the consensus is missing the signal.
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Why I'm All-In on Micron (MU)
Inventory sold out for 2026, a $330 breakout in sight by February — the bull case for MU that Wall Street hasn't priced in.
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The 2025 Finale: The Rotation to Quality Is Just Beginning, But Do Be Warned
NVIDIA and Tesla corrections predicted; Amazon emerging as the quality safe haven. Why the rotation isn't over yet.
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HOOD: Bull Run Is Overextended and a Correction Is Imminent
Robinhood Markets shows signs of exhaustion and insider selling. Why the run may be over sooner than bulls think.
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NVIDIA: Why I'm Changing My Rating to SELL
Updated DCF model with higher WACC and more conservative growth assumptions now points to -6.6% downside from current levels. The case for exiting.
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How I'm Navigating the Stock Market Amid U.S. Government Shutdown
A government shutdown, $37 trillion in debt, and toxic political gridlock. Here is how I am positioning portfolios for the uncertainty ahead.
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Why Alibaba's Valuation May Not Reflect Its AI Upside
Alibaba is trading at a steep discount to global tech peers despite strong cloud growth. A deep dive into whether the valuation gap presents a margin of safety.
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PayPal Just Flipped the Profit Switch
Transaction margin dollars up 7%, adjusted EPS up 18%, full-year guidance raised. Breaking down what's actually working in PayPal's margin-led turnaround.
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Microsoft: AI Demand Is Real. The Bill Is Bigger.
Azure up 26%, Copilot seat adds at a record, capex at $88.7B. Does the monetization justify the spend — and when does the margin inflection arrive?
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Boeing: Cash Getting Tighter. Backlog Getting Bigger.
150 deliveries, a $619B backlog, and negative free cash flow. The demand side looks solid — execution is the only thing that matters now.
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Nike: Reset Year. Proof Comes Next.
Revenue down 10%, EPS of $0.14. Nike owns culture and sport — the problem is execution. What needs to happen for FY2026 to be the turnaround year.
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